This work was first featured in the New Statesman. It was conducted in partnership with IPPR.

What we wanted to find out

• Establish a ‘baseline’ of opinion on the key policy debates likely to dominate this Parliament.
• Map this opinion across every constituency.
• Analyse opinion across the constituency coalition of the new Labour government, in particular, following their recent success at the July 2024 general election.

What we did

• 20,000 person polling survey in the week of 1st July 2024. Fieldwork conducted by FocalData.
• Multilevel Regression with Poststratification (MRP) technique to map opinion across every constituency. For logistical reasons this only covered England, Scotland and Wales (Great Britain) and did not cover Northern Ireland.
• 10 interactive opinion maps were created as a result of this, which it’s possible to see individual seat results - and filter for seats that changed hands at the general election. You can see these here.
• We can also use this ‘mega sample’ to analyse the opinions of key switcher groups within the electorate.

What we found

• Opinion maps are here and the full briefing can be downloaded above, along with the underlying data.
• Overall the new Labour government’s electoral coalition is united on some issues and divided on others. Broadly, we can see that it is united on issues of economic change (borrowing to invest, workers rights, UK-EU relations post Brexit, the building of infrastructure etc) as well as climate/Net Zero, but less united on questions of culture and identity. Tax and welfare are also areas where consensus is less strong.
• You can read the full briefing or explore the opinion maps to see this dynamic in greater detail.