IPPR policy recommendations can be found here.

What we wanted to find out

• What are the factors that shape attitudes towards Electric Vehicles (EVs) and the 2030 phase out policy on new petrol and diesel cars?
• What variables most influence consumer choices in the car market?
• What messages, messengers and policies pull people towards EVs and which push them away?
• What does the above mean for the policy and communications around this subject in the coming years?

What we did

• X2 focus groups were conducted in October 2024 among Conservative 2019 to Labour 2024 swing voters, since these are arguably the most contested or important group in the electorate. All participants were drivers.
• In-depth polling of baseline attitudes to Electric Vehicles (EVs). n=4,000 UK adults in November 2024, conducted via FocalData. Sample was representative on age, gender, region, education and past vote. We used this same survey to do basic ‘pro vs anti’ narrative testing via paired statements.
• Rebuttal paired statement testing. Survey respondents first saw an attack on EVs and then one randomised rebuttal. They are asked which they find most convincing. In the analysis phase we see which rebuttal, if any, best neutralised the attack. 6,442 UK adults in November 2024, conducted via YouGov.
• Randomised Control Trial (RCT) messaging experiment. Respondents are split up into demographically identical sub-groups; treatment groups see a pro-EV/2030 message, a control group sees none. All groups take the same outcome survey on their attitudes to EV. In the analysis phase we see which message, if any, most increased positivity towards EVs. 6,000 UK adults in December 2024, conducted via YouGov.
• Messenger conjoint. Respondents see a neutral BBC article (fictional) on the government’s 2030 EV target. They are informed of three people in favour of the policy and three against, drawn randomly from a list. They are asked their view on the policy. In the analysis phase we see which messenger endorsement was most connected to higher or lower support and opposition to the policy. 6,442 UK adults in November 2024, conducted via YouGov.
• Consumer conjoint. Respondents were presented with two cars, an EV and petrol car, with attributes randomised across different categories (costs; range; re-fill cost; production location; annual insurance cost; Govt support available). They are asked which they’d prefer to buy. In the analysis phase we see which variables ‘reveal’ themselves to be important in driving consumers choosing EVs. 6,442 UK adults in November 2024, conducted via YouGov.

What we found out

• The socialisation of Electric Vehicles in all parts of British society is high and growing. 45% of voters and 49% of drivers now either drive an EV or have a friend or family member who does. This is 40% among non-graduates and 44% among those on average incomes.
• Most UK voters start instinctively positive towards EVs, driven by the view that they are better for the environment. This baseline positivity extends to crucial 'Conservative to Labour' switchers, who consistently show relatively high levels of baseline support for the shift to EVs throughout the polling. A majority (58 per cent) of consumers in the market for a new car are willing to consider buying an EV, in principle.
• However, voter attitudes in this area are soft, and highly vulnerable to consumer-focused opposition arguments. Throughout the research, respondents appeared susceptible to arguments that while EVs are 'a nice idea in theory', they are not necessarily practical for people like them - especially when it comes to cost and charging/range of EVs.
• Evidence from our consumer experiment suggests charging and range are highly predictive of consumer choices in the market.
• This is not a culture war. Public concerns are deeply practical and good faith, not ideological or cultural. While there is some class divide, EVs as an issue is not (yet) polarised on class or values lines in the way immigration or Brexit is, for instance.
• Overarching messages that pull people towards EVs and the 2030 policy are: emphasising the increasing uptake of EVs; the need to protect against the threat of climate change, and energy independence (the last two are consistent with wider Net Zero comms research).