Attached are:

• The full research report
• A summary deck of key charts ('just give me the graphs') with minimal commentary

This research appeared on the New Statesman podcast and website.

What we wanted to find out

• Where do voters stand on the issue of taxation, how do they deal with trade-offs facing the government and to what extent, if at all, might they be persuaded to support broad-based tax rises, including those which may breach the 2024 Labour manifesto?

What we did

• X4 focus groups with key groups. Conducted in June 2025.
• Core survey and competitive frame testing. n=9000 UK voters via NorStat in August 2025..
• Conjoint experiment. n=4000 UK voters via YouGov in August 2025.

What we found

• The government approaches the Budget in a really difficult operating environment. Low trust in politics and cost of living pressures does not leave a large pool of voters willing to pay more tax. If the government can achieve success – or at least avoid failure – on the priorities of its electoral coalition while just taxing narrow groups of voters or businesses at the very top, that should probably be its first port of call.
• It’s possible that policy realities will force a sharper choice – between respecting the manifesto or achieving success/avoiding failure on the public realm (NHS, crime), cost of living and child poverty. In that case, the least worst option is breaching manifesto promises.
• If the government needs to break manifesto commitments, very likely its best communications approach combines a values message about fairness (those at the top are being taxed the most) with a new story about the government’s relentless focus on cost of living, using some of the money raised to fund broad based and noticeable cost of living schemes (eg on energy bills).
• Such an approach would possibly require broadening Labour’s electoral coalition. While some Labour/Reform voters can be won round by the above strategy, overall they are more resistant to tax rises. There exists other groups in the electorate, however, who did not vote Labour in 2024– especially soft Conservative voters, soft Greens and soft Lib Dems – who might be more receptive.
• Opponents have numerous arguments available to them, focusing mostly on the cost of living squeeze, government waste and asylum.