(This research first appeared in the Financial Times)

According to its original definition, 'Blue Wall' seats refer to long-held, traditional Conservative parliamentary constituencies in which that party under-performed the national swing in both the 2017 and 2019 elections, in many cases eroding the incumbent Conervative's majority over that time. As a result, over time these seats have emerged as 'in play' and at the 2024 general election and may fall to the Liberal Democrats or Labour, many for the first time ever. This research explores these seats in depth.

What we wanted to find out

• What are Blue Wall seats on new Parliamentary boundaries?
• What, if anything, is distinct about them demographically?
• How do values and opinions in these constituencies compare to the national average, but also 'Red Wall' battleground seats?
• Where do voters in these seats place their values in comparison to the two main parties, Conservatives and Labour?
• Leaving aside party brands, what are the policy issues and leadership characteristics that shape voter choice in these constituencies and the country at large?

What we did

• Identify a shortlist and longlist of 'Blue Wall' seats on new boundaries, based on notional performance in 2015, 2017 and 2019 elections.
• Map these constituencies to Census data for the first time, spanning 2001 to 2021.
• Conduct 3,000 person representative poll of the top 50 constituencies, alongside - for the purposes of comparison - a 1,200 poll in Red Wall constituencies and 1,000 in the rest of Great Britain.
• As part of this survey work, we also conducted a 'revealed preference' conjoint experiment on policy priorities and desirable leadership characteristics.

All of this this work was conducted with YouGov in June 2024.

What we discovered

• Blue Wall seats are largely found on the outskirts of big cities or in prosperous commuter towns of England, mostly - though not exclusively - in the south east. A shortlist of 50 is contained at the bottom of this page. This includes information on levels of Conservative underperformance in these seats in 2017 and 2019, as well as YouGov's latest estimate for the 2024 election.
• Demographically, these seats are defined by a much higher than average number of graduates, and slightly more older voters, non-white voters and homeowners. There is also some evidence they are characterised by higher levels of internal migration.
• Partly as a result, these constituencies are marked by a level of social liberalism that is typically above the national average but far above the average for 'Red Wall' constituencies.
• There is a significant disconnect between the values of voters in these seats and what they perceive the values of the Conservative party to be. This is especially the case on issues which fall on the liberal-authoritarian axis.
• More immediate reasons for switching from the Conservatives differs by switcher group, with concerns related to propriety and public services more salient for switchers to Labour and the Lib Dems, while migration dominates for switchers to Reform.
• The Labour and Liberal Democrat vote is currently very efficient in these seats, with propensity for tactical voting very high.
• However, Labour's vote in these seats is somewhat more socially liberal than elsewhere but also more open to voting for other left parties in the future.
• In terms of 'party blind' preferences, voters across battleground seats currently prioritise policies on the left-right economic axis (especially NHS spending) and honesty in politicians. However, Red Wall voters value authenticity more, Blue Wall voters 'having a clear plan' and being calm in a crisis. On policy, Blue Wall voters prioritised renewable energy, inheritance tax and Brexit slightly more.

For greater detail, you can download the full briefing. We have also uploaded accompanying Census data and results from the conjoint experiment. If you would like the data that sits underneath any of the polling, get in touch.

Full interactive table of 'Blue Wall' seats to watch at the general election: